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OVERALL CAVEATS

All projections are based on sell-through, not shipments, reported by 32 retailers in 18 countries – 9 retailers in 3 countries in North America; 10 retailers and 5 countries in Europe; 4 countries and  5 retailers in Asia; 2 retailers in 2 countries in the Pacific area;  2 countries and 3 retailers in Africa and the same in Latin America.

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 Effect of the Shutdown

 

Effect of shutdown on toy aisle traffic and toy sales in the U.S.

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Toy Fair

I  do not attend Toy Fair but my national buyer contacts do and four of them have promised to share their findings with me on the Fashion Doll, Action Figure, Learning,  Games and Puzzles, Preschool  and other categories. I expect to receive these notes early March and I will report on this specifically before middle of March

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MATTEL

 

 

 

4.1

Structural Simplification

 

The predicted $500 million plus yearly loss has materialized and we are now predicting the probable effect of the continuation of this plan for 2019 and the yearly net result

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4.2

Mattel Movies

 

Predicting twelve movies to be released between 2019 and 2024

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4.3

Fourth Quarter and January/February performance

 

Assessment 4th quarter performance and projecting January and February ell-through

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4.4

The  Boy/Girl Segment

 

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Fourth Quarter 2018 performance

 

Assessment 4th Q sell-through performance versus shipments. Retail inventory changes internationally

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January/February 2019 Sell-through performance

 

Major factors affecting sell-through

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Top Fashion Doll IPs in each major market

Top 5 IP rankings at 32 major retailers in 18 leading toy markets

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North America

 

Top 5 Fashion Doll IP rankings at 9 major retailers in 3 countries, market share changes; market shares of the leading Fashion Dolls between 9/30/2018 and 2/25/2019

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Europe

Top 5 Fashion Doll IP rankings at 10 major retailers in 5 countries, market share changes

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AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa

Top 5 Fashion Doll IP rankings at 13 major retailers in 10 countries, market share changes

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Fashion Dolls Worldwide

 

Overall developments and market share changes

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Special Events

 

New license acquisitions

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4.5

 Fisher Price

 

 

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Fourth Quarter 2018 performance

Sell-through versus shipments.

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January/February 2019 Sell-through performance

 

Sell-through and outlook first quarter

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Special Events

 

Rescue Heroes launch

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4.6

 American Girl

 

Sell-through prediction versus actual 4th Q.  January and February 2019 sell-through assessment

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4.7

Mega

 

4h Q sell-through versus shipments. Assessment January/February sell-through performance

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Special Events

 

Pokemon Detective Pikachu movie and license

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5

HASBRO

 

 

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5.1

Fourth Quarter and January/February performance

 

Assessment 4th quarter performance and projecting January and February ell-through

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5.2

The  Boy Segment

 

 

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Fourth Quarter 2018 performance

 

Assessment 4th Q sell-through performance versus shipments.

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January and February 2019 Sell-through performance

 

January and February sell-through assessment

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Top Action Figure IPs in each major market

 

Top 5 IP rankings at 32 major retailers in 18 leading toy markets

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North America

 

Top 5 Action Figure IP rankings at 9 major retailers in 3 countries, market share changes

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Europe

Top 5 Action Figure IP rankings at 10 major retailers in 5 countries, market share changes

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AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa

Top 5 Action Figure IP rankings at 13 major retailers in 10 countries, market share changes

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Action Figures Worldwide

 

Overall developments and market share changes

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5.3

 Girls properties

 

Assessment 4th quarter performance and projecting January and February ell-through

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5.4

Preschool

 

Assessment 4th quarter performance and projecting January and February ell-through

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5.5

Games and Puzzles

 

 

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Fourth Quarter and January/February performance

 

Assessment 4th quarter performance and projecting January and February ell-through

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Position in each major market

Hasbro’s position at 32 major retailers in 18 leading toy markets at the end of January:

 

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North America

Hasbro’s ranking amongst top twenty IPs at 9 major retailers at 3 major markets; market share changes May to September 2018

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Europe

Hasbro’s ranking amongst top twenty IPs at 10 major retailers at 8 major markets; market share changes May to September 2018

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Australasia, South Africa and Latin America:

 

Hasbro’s ranking amongst top twenty IPs at 13 major retailers at109 major markets; market share changes May to September 2018

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Hasbro Games Position Worldwide

Overall assessment; market share changes June 2018 to January 20192018

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Hasbro Games Position Worldwide

Overall assessment; market share changes May to September 2018

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6

LEAPFROG/VTECH

 

 

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6,1

Fourth Quarter and January/February performance

 

Assessment 4th quarter performance and projecting January and February ell-through

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6.2

Top Learning Products in each major market

 

Top 5 IPs at 32 retailers in 18 major markets

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North America

Top 5 IP ranking by buyers at 9 major retailers at 3 major markets; market share changes LF, VTech, MAT, Melissa + Doug as well as Learning Resources, Educational Insights and 4M

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Europe

Top 5 IP ranking by buyers at 10 major retailers at 5 major markets; market share changes of the major players

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AustralAsia, Latin America, Africa

Top 5 IP ranking by buyers at 13 major retailers at 10 major markets; market share changes of the major players

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Learning Product Positions Worldwide

Worldwide assessment of performance of changes of the major players

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JAKKS PACIFIC

 

 

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7.1

4th Quarter and January/February performance

 

Assessment 4th quarter performance and projecting January and February ell-through

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7.2

Special Events

 

Changes in license arrangements

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8

SPIN MASTER

 

 

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8.1

Fourth Quarter 2018 performance

Sell-through versus shipments

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8.2

January/February 2019 Sell-through performance

Sell-through assessment

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Games (includes Gund) - 4th Quarter 2018 and January/February performance

 

4th Quarter sell=through versus shipments. January/February sell-through performance

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Remote Control/ Interactive - 4th Quarter 2018 and January/February performance

 

4th Quarter sell=through versus shipments. January/February sell-through performance

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Boys Action Figures and  HiTech - 4th Quarter 2018 and January/February performance

 

4th Quarter sell=through versus shipments. January/February sell-through performance

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Preschool and Girls  - 4th Quarter 2018 and January/February performance

 

4th Quarter sell=through versus shipments. January/February sell-through performance

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Outdoor - 4th Quarter 2018 and January/February performance

4th Quarter sell=through versus shipments. January/February sell-through performance

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8.4

Special Events

 

Hilda License for GUND

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9

FUNKO

 

 

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9.1

 4th Q 2018 and 1st Q 2019 Performance

 

4th Quarter sell=through versus shipments. January/February sell-through performance

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9.2

Competitors

 

Hasbro’s Mighty Muggs performance

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9.3

Special Events

 

Forrest-Pruzan Creative acquisition

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Caution

 

Copyrighted Publication